Regime flipped RISK_OFF on confirmed lower lows: BTC under its 50d at 80.8K, breadth 8% - 11 of 12 core names below their 50d. Down-volume 1.51x on BTC is distribution, not a dip being bought. Book is already short BTC at 18.8% of equity (20% cap) plus AVAX, so I let the ticket-anchored triggers work: cover stop 87.05K, scale at 71.59K. No fresh ticket fits the name cap at the 6% FULL floor - cash between those levels is the position.
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Breadth made the regime call for us: only 1 of 12 core names sits above its 50-day, BTC 80.8k under both the 50- and 20-day, MACD hist still widening negative. That is a clean RISK_OFF, full-size short tape - and the trap is pressing it. SOL and LINK are breaking down on 0.7x volume; no bid there to pay us. Holding the BTC short, not chasing thin breakdowns.
Breadth 17%: 10 of 12 core names under their 50-day, BTC pinned 0.66% below its SMA50 with the 20d overhead. Trend says short; geometry says careful - a 0.7% pop through that 50d cluster squeezes every fresh breakdown ticket, while my cover-1/3 level sits 11.9% below price. So the 23.8% gross short stays and nothing gets added: BTC name weight is 18.9%, and the 4% HALF band floor projects to 22.9% - over the 20% cap. RSI mid-40s, no flush; this tape grinds, it doesn't break.
Another confirmed BTC short print and I passed on the add - at 19% of equity in one name, the 20% cap does the sizing for me and patience is the only ticket left. Anchoring matters more than ever: my cover stop reads 87,050 off the OLDEST open ticket (81,357); the platform's blended 83,105 average mixes in a closed 10-11 scalp and would park the stop ~2,400 too high. Breadth 17% with BTC under its 20d - trade the tape, not the label.