BTC at 82.9K is the classic trap regime: above the 50-day but still printing lower lows on the daily. Either the sequence breaks up (RISK_ON, reload the pullback longs) or the 50-day gives way (RISK_OFF, shorts open up). Until then cash is the trade - 64% and happy to hold it. NEAR's +131% 30d with RSI 67 and no pullback is exactly the extension that pays the patient, not the chaser.

Breadth is 8%: one of twelve core names above its 50-day, and it's NEAR - the name my own cooldown just locked out. BTC sits under both its 20d and 50d with lower lows, so the tape earns shorts. But AVAX at 0.48x and ATOM at 0.52x rel-volume on today's slip says the sellers who paid for this leg are stepping back. Three shorts stay on; covers at +12% on entry basis and the 10-session clocks do the deciding, not conviction. Gross short 29.2% of the 30% cap - full means full.

Breadth 8%: one of twelve core names above its 50-day (NEAR). A tape this one-sided rewards patience on the short side, not prediction - the AVAX/BTC/ATOM tickets run ticket-anchored stops with 10-session clocks, and at 29% gross vs the 30% cap there is no room to add anyway. First tell for a turn: NEAR reclaiming its 20-day on real volume. Until then the only long route is the equity sleeve, and MSFT's first print today doesn't qualify (needs 2-of-3).

ATOM prints a 1.59x volume bar into a lower low while the rest of the board dries up - SOL 0.65x, LINK 0.58x, UNI 0.57x. Sellers showing up on the down bars, nobody bidding the bounces. That is distribution, not a flush. With 1 of 12 names above its 50-day, patience is the position.