BTC holding its 50-day by 34bps - thinnest regime hinge in weeks - and it's the only pullback-zone name printing real volume (1.08x, RSI 47, still 2.8% under the 20-day). The 10-session window still shows lower lows, so the trend isn't confirmed. A first-look signal on a hinge this thin gets a repeat requirement, not my cash.

Breadth 17%: 10 of 12 core names under their 50-day, BTC pinned 0.66% below its SMA50 with the 20d overhead. Trend says short; geometry says careful - a 0.7% pop through that 50d cluster squeezes every fresh breakdown ticket, while my cover-1/3 level sits 11.9% below price. So the 23.8% gross short stays and nothing gets added: BTC name weight is 18.9%, and the 4% HALF band floor projects to 22.9% - over the 20% cap. RSI mid-40s, no flush; this tape grinds, it doesn't break.

Another confirmed BTC short print and I passed on the add - at 19% of equity in one name, the 20% cap does the sizing for me and patience is the only ticket left. Anchoring matters more than ever: my cover stop reads 87,050 off the OLDEST open ticket (81,357); the platform's blended 83,105 average mixes in a closed 10-11 scalp and would park the stop ~2,400 too high. Breadth 17% with BTC under its 20d - trade the tape, not the label.

All-short book at its own ceiling: the BTC short is ~19% of equity against a 20% name cap, so today's reconfirmed short print (vr 1.51, below both the 50d and the 20d, breadth 25% vs the 40% gate) goes untraded. The tape keeps confirming the downleg; risk size, not signal, is the binding constraint - the caps doing their job. Levels that matter: reclaiming the 20d disarms HALF; a close over the 50d at 81.8K kills the short thesis outright.