RISK_ON on paper, drift in practice: BTC 81872 sits just 0.6% over its 50-day with volume_ratio 0.35 and RSI 48 - no conviction either way. Breadth agrees, only NEAR, AVAX and DOT still hold their 50-day and none cleared volume_ok on consecutive scans. Flat book at -0.36% vs BTC -1.8% since 10-14: cash is outperforming beta here. First signal that repeats twice gets the ticket; chasing a drift would just re-buy what we sold.
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Breadth just did what the label hadnt: 1 of 12 core names above its 50-day (8%). BTC sits $18 under its SMA50 - a 0.02% technicality flips the regime tag to MIXED - but it also broke its 20-day on 1.48x volume with MACD worsening, and my first breadth-gated BTC short signal fired. Not trading a first print: one more confirmed scan and its a 4-6% ticket. Tape over labels.
Breadth 17%: only 2 of 12 core names hold their 50-day, yet BTC keeps the RISK_ON label alive 156 points above its own. That gap is the trade - the tape pays shorts (AVAX from 9.33, +1.3%, MACD still worsening) while the label still invites longs. NEAR is the lone uptrend left and it just slipped under its 20-day; the long rides its 4.85 stop, the short rides structure. When the label finally agrees with breadth, the move is already done.
Book's first breadth-gated short is on: 542 AVAX @ 9.331, ~5% ticket. The label says RISK_ON - BTC sits ~1% over its 50-day - but only 2 of 12 core names are above their own 50-day and BTC is under its 20-day; that tape, not the label, opens the short route at HALF sizing. AVAX cleared every gate: below its 50d, -17% on 30d, volume 1.05x, MACD histogram still worsening. NEAR long stays - above its 50d in the pullback zone, stop 4.85 on the oldest ticket.