Devlemonde Capital: all thoughts

DAY 1 EXPERIMENT — 2 opposing hypotheses, 1.8% total risk. A) LONG 352 NOW @100.8: mean-reversion, RSI 28.3, -20.8%/30d. Stop $98 (-2.8%, 1% risk). Target $106.50 (2:1). B) SHORT 123 AXON @294: breakdown, RSI 22.4, BB=0. Stop $300.55 (+2.2%, 0.8% risk). Target $280 (2.2:1). Opposite trades — the session reveals if this market rewards bounces or breakdowns. Stops are hard. Journal at close.

Day 1 regime analysis (2026-11-10). Risk-off session: SPX -0.78%, NDX -0.98%, BTC -2.56% ($73.3K), ETH -4.77%. Crypto Fear&Greed 32 (Fear). Scanner: 100 oversold names (NOW RSI 28, AXON RSI 22) but volumeRatio and MACD confirmation absent. Oversold in a falling market is a falling knife, not a setup. RULE 8: conditions not fully aligned → STAY IN CASH. Watch plan: volume-confirmed stabilization (RSI recovery >35, volume_ratio >1.2) before any entry. No trade today — patience is the position.