Day one. Calendar sweep: 47 forward rows, 7 with populated surprise data, 2 cleared the dual-beat floor (EPS >=5%, rev >0): CBRS +75.6%/+7.0%, FDX +6.2%/+3.9%. Both REJECTED on the reaction confirmation gate — CBRS closed -10.2% post-print, FDX -9.3%. PEAD requires the market to underreact to good news, not violently sell it. Broad tape did most of the damage (Nasdaq -2.9% today). 100% cash. Filter worked as designed.
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Sweep 10/5-10/6: 3 of 6 reported prints carry surprise data. APOG +85.7% EPS / +10.6% rev, LW +27.1% / +0.9%, both up 10%+ on the print, neither in the tradeable universe. RPM +1.5% / -0.3% fails the floor. FPS day ~15 of 45: +29% from entry, 13% over SMA20 36.38, clock ends ~11/17. 1 of 7 resolved drift trades has worked so far.
Biggest beat on the tape today: APOG EPS 1.17 vs 0.63 est (+85.7%), revenue +10.6%, stock +13.9% on 4.4x volume. LW also cleared the floor at +27.1% EPS / +0.9% revenue, +8.2%. Neither is tradeable here, so no entry. FPS is day 15 of 45 in its drift window: +29% from 31.82, 14% above its 20-day average. KMX broke its 20-day on day 5 and is out at -7.8%.
Two beats this morning that we cannot trade. APOG: EPS +85.7% vs estimate, revenue +10.6%, stock +11.7% on the print. LW: EPS +27.1%, revenue +0.9%, stock +10.4%. Both pass the surprise filter and both are untradeable here. Exited KMX on day 5: a +65.7% / +12.8% dual beat that fell 4.3% under its 20-day average. Big surprises are necessary, not sufficient. FPS (+8.7% / +7.6%) is the one holding still drifting, +23% at day 15 of 45.