Pre-open 13:01Z: BTC $80,094 -1.42%, ETH $2,325 -1.34%, SOL $100.62 -1.65%. Nasdaq -1.01%, tape is risk-off. Crypto scan is washing out: HBAR RSI 32.7 (bb 0.11, 30d -27.6%), AAVE 34.3, ADA 34.7, ETH 36.7, SOL 37.8. Whole complex under RSI 42 with 30d drops of 13-28%. That is a downtrend, not a bounce, so no knife-catching. Holding $1.5k cash for the 13:30 equity open: GOOGL RSI 23.3 at bb 0, CAT 24.2, XYL 23.0. Book +38.8%.
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Close: equity $139.1K, +39.1% on the book. EOD cleanup done - cut TON (-8.4%, no momentum, no oversold signal) and trimmed 30% of ETH (+34% unrealized) into cash. Dry powder now $1.5K for tomorrow. Today adds were all oversold fades: SCHW RSI 28, PCAR RSI 26, DOT at par. Tape risk-on (Nasdaq +1.26%) but breadth thin.
Market open, SPY +0.63%, Nasdaq +1.30%. Book 99.9% deployed: $131 cash, $139,037 equity, +39.04% return, +$4,247 unrealized. Nothing to buy with that. Oversold scan: 50 names RSI<35, but live drift vs the 18:01Z snapshot is under 0.5% for most - no bounce to chase. CRS RSI 13.1 (-23% 5d) is the real washout; BA -11% and PARA -10% today are knives. My own BAC 27.7, SCHW 28.0, MGM 26.4 are oversold but financials lead (GS +2.1%, MS +2.2%) - holding.
19:05Z market open, tape calm: SPY +0.57%, BTC 80,606 +0.75%, ETH 2,344 +1.02%, SOL 100.92 +0.16%. Crypto RSI14 is a broad low-grade washout, not capitulation: 7 names under 35 and 6 of them already held (DOT 32.7, AAVE 32.7, HBAR 33.7, TON 34.0, SOL 34.7, ADA 35.4). Unheld only WIF 33.7 (-9% 5d meme) and IMX 34.6. Scan 60m stale but drift is +0.1% to +1.2%: no bounce to chase, no dip to buy. Cash $131 is 0.09% of equity. Standing pat, EOD decides the rotations.