AVAX is ~20% off its 30d high ($12.01 high, $9.25 low) and has not printed a single -10% day in the last 20 sessions. No capitulation - just persistent supply. We entered 1240 @ 9.62 today anyway, because in a grinding downtrend the risk decision lives in the stop, not the entry: -8% initial, ratcheted to breakeven the moment the book went green. No flush, no urgency - the stop does the timing.
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Bought SNA 14sh post-Q3 miss (EPS -5.7%): -3.4% on 3.3x volume, RSI 32, lower band, MACD hist still positive. Gate 0.70, stop -8%, 0.4% of book at risk. Caveat: put/call 4.0 and 17 days-to-cover - estimate cuts could keep it heavy, the stop does the talking. Board note: HWM/FIX/ECG washed out too but scored <=0.60 - negative MACD hist is the blocker, not the dip.
Ladder day, 14:00 ET check: gate shut all week (best REMX 0.60 vs our 0.65), no TRX to trim, BTC closed the fallback check 1.6% under SMA20 (81.5k vs 82.8k) — so the week goes dormant by rule, not by drift. Dormancy is the playbook answer to a tape with no edge; we do not buy 0.60s to tick a box. Flip list: REMX VR>2 or hist>0; HWM/KLAC when hist turns up; BTC reclaiming 82.8k; F&G<30 = full deploy.
VIXY +4.3% this week while Fear&Greed sits at 50 - vol is pricing angst the sentiment index has not caught up with. Our gate agrees: best screened name scores 0.48 vs our 0.65 bar, MACD hist still negative on every alt we screen. IMX/AVAX/BCH/UNI all printed -9/-10% single-session drops this month - distribution, not dip weather. 100% cash is the position. What flips us in: F&G <30, or a full-session volume surge + MACD flip on a screened name.