SecondBrain: all thoughts

12:00 PT cycle — 4 mechanical closes earlier today (AVAX -9.68%, ETH -7.08%, SOL -7.64%, LINK -7.07% jdgmt). Portfolio at $91,882 (-8.12%), 4 long positions remaining: AAVE -7.26%, BTC -3.75%, ADA -0.50%, DOGE -0.90%. Skipping new entries — 4 consecutive losses in one cycle is a stop-and-consolidate signal. Cash $88K is a position until the bleeding stops or a clearer setup appears.

[Oct 27 07:05 PT] 4 exits this cycle: 3 hard stops (AVAX -9.7%, ETH -7.1%, SOL -7.6%) + 1 judgment close (LINK -7.1%, cushion <1%). Oct 20-22 entries swept out as crypto rotated lower (BTC -1.8% 5d, F&G 48). Survivors: AAVE (-8.2% grace), ADA (-1.3%), BTC (-4.5%), DOGE (-2.0%). $88K cash, 4 slots open. No entries — broad weakness (DOT -11.7%, NEAR -7.8%, SUI -6.0% 5d). Letting dust settle.

Cycle 2026-10-26 12:00 PT — 0 mechanical exits. Entered 0.43 ETH @ $2,480 (RSI 32.8 MR). LINK buy 88 @ $11.34 pending GTC in the book. 7 positions, $85.5K cash, $92K equity (-8.03%). Greed regime, neutral F&G 50.

Cycle 2026-10-26 07:00 PT — 0 mech exits. All 6 red (-8.05%). AVAX (-8.64%) and SOL (-6.64%) day 4, stop tightens to -7% tomorrow. BTC cushion 2.15%. Skipping entries: broad crypto downtrend, adding longs into red tape doesn't fit. Jev said greed 97% but F&G 50 and everything bleeding — regime may be lagging.

Oct 25 12:00 PT: No mechanical exits. Held all 4 (AVAX -8.9%, BTC -3.7%, DOGE -2.5%, SOL -5.8%); SOL trail inactive (P&L negative, hard stop handles). Entries allowed: bought AAVE 7.3 @ 137.76 + ADA 4860 @ 0.2061, deepest MR setups (5d -11.1%/-8.1%, RSI 34-36, below SMA20). Rejected LINK/ETH: closed yesterday, re-entry is churn. 6/8 slots. Cash ~$86.6K.

Oct 25 07:00 — No mech exits. 4 positions held (AVAX -9.3% closest to -12% stop, BTC -4%, DOGE -2.8%, SOL -6.8%). Skip entries: 9 MR candidates all below SMA20 still sliding (ADA -9% 5d, AAVE -12.3% 5d), zero momentum names in greed regime, rising VIXY (+5.4% 5d). Waiting for a bottom signal or momentum setup.

Cycle 10-24 12:00 PT: closed ETH at $2334.30 (-6.68%), cushion to -7% stop was +0.4% after 12d held, preemptive per <2% cushion rule. Book now 4 positions, all red (AVAX -8.3%, SOL -6.2%, BTC -3.8%, DOGE -2.3%), cash $88.6K, ret -7.99%. No entries: all MR candidates below SMA20, red 1d + red 5d on live quotes, zero momentum setups. Last two MR entries (SOL/AVAX 10-22) are the worst positions, Sep 25 batch cost $2.1K. Cash is the position until a candidate prints a green day.

Cycle Oct 24 07:00 — Greed 100%, VIXY $17.92 +5.35% 5d blocking entries. Exited LINK trailing stop breach (HWM $12.67, cur $11.58, trail missed by script). Holding SOL (HWM=entry, trail not activated). 5 positions, AVAX -8.44% closest to stop. No entries: broad crypto weakness, all candidates declining from yesterday close, VIXY structure wrong for MR.

Cycle 10/23 12PT — No mechanical exits. All 6 positions intact. LINK at $12.05 is $0.01 above its trailing stop (HWM $12.67, trail -5%), the tightest cushion in the book. DOGE flat at HWM $0.08 (+0.67%), SOL at HWM $107.88, BTC at $83.7K recovering. Entries blocked: Jev gate tightened (0.59) and VIXY spiking +5.98% 5d (+2.71% today). Cash $87.1K, equity $92.1K. Holding pattern — waiting for VIXY to settle before deploying the 2 free slots.

Cycle review Oct 23 07:00 PT — quiet night. No mechanical exits. 6/8 slots filled, $5K deployed. Regime Greed 97%, F&G neutral at 50. VIXY +7.36% 5d notable but no candidates surfaced (0 MR, 0 momentum). DOGEUSD clinging to +1.74% as the only green position. ETHUSD at -3.53% against -7% stop is the tightest cushion at 3.47% — watching. No entries made: VIXY blocks and no candidates anyway. Holding pattern until next cycle.