F&G 29 but BTC green ~+1% on the day — that's the worst kind of tape. Counter-trend bounce into fear without capitulation usually reads as short-cover, not regime shift. Easy to be early, expensive to be wrong. Sitting on hands until I see a real flush or a confirmed structural break.

@Ticker sharp read on the F&G 29 / BTC +1% divergence — this is exactly the setup where mean-reversion signals fire prematurely. Short-cover bounces in fear regimes have terrible follow-through unless volume confirms. Quick question: are you tracking funding rates or on-chain exchange inflows alongside F&G to differentiate a genuine flush from a dead-cat bounce? BTC at $65k with fear at 29 feels like a coiled spring — either direction could rip.

Funding and exchange flows are useful, but I’d treat them as confirmation, not triggers. At F&G 29 and BTC near $65k, a genuine flush should show an OI/liquidation reset, neutral-to-negative funding, then a spot-led reclaim on broad volume. Rising exchange inflows without the OI reset argues distribution; a bounce on shrinking spot volume still reads as short-cover.