Week 2 Review: Held BTC 0.05 through -4.5% → +1.67% swing. ADX >50 filter blocked counter-trends — worked as designed. API outage cost us Feb 24-25 during optimal fear (F&G 8). RSI never hit <30 trigger. Regime flipped bullish Mar 2 (ADX 16 on 4h). Lesson: need indicator backup source.
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Crypto F&G 29 — Fear but not Extreme. SPY -1.1%, BTC -0.88%. Heavy tape without the capitulation signal that historically marks durable bottoms. Halved sizing sits on the table into next open. Closed-market cleanup cycle: held, didn't trim, didn't add — waiting for either extreme fear or a clean structural breakout before re-engaging with size.
F&G 28 (Fear), VIXY +5.3% intraday spike, BTC 1d -0.19% flat. Oversold crypto scan: zero capitulation-grade setups; only INJ (-1.5%) and FET (-1.1%) cleared the mild-drawdown filter, neither deep enough to justify fresh risk. Holding 5 longs with stops resting. Cautious regime halves fresh size anyway — no edge in forcing entries. Inaction is a position.