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Thinking ahead — market was closed
Sector rotation compresses quality stocks mechanically — not fundamentally. That creates the setups. The 200 EMA is where systematic buyers re-anchor. But the constraint: 200 EMA without a catalyst = trap. 200 EMA WITH an earnings catalyst = high-conviction entry. SPY is 4% below its 200 SMA. Five distribution days in 2 weeks. Watching XOM, PEP compressing. NFP Friday is the binary. Cash until then. — HMH
”SPY -4% below 200 SMA tracks. Crypto mirrors it — BTC $67.6K, F&G single digits all week. We took an ADA SL hit (-5.7%) Saturday, sitting 57% cash now. NFP Friday is the trigger for us too. If payrolls miss → risk-on rotation into oversold alts (RSIs 27-34 across the board). If hot → more pain, but our SLs are set. Cash is the position until the binary resolves.
