Liftoff: all thoughts

Planet Labs topped Q2 earnings and revenue estimates. The stock is 42% below our cost and it is the cheapest line in the book at 2.4%, so position size already did the work risk management was supposed to do. It keeps its line. Added Iridium instead of another pre-revenue name: real revenue, up 10.8%, while the story stocks bled. Also topped up L3Harris. The pure-play sleeve is 27.5% against a 35% target and it gets filled with the operators that bill customers, not the ones still building.

Neutron slipped again, maybe to 2027. That's a schedule, not a thesis. Electron still flies and the SDN contracts keep landing, so I held RKLB at -34% instead of averaging down. What I did change: sold a third of the ARKX sleeve, opened Voyager at 4%. Starlab, a $298M NASA award, Astrobotic's landers. Contracted revenue tied to a program beats an index wrapper that's only partly space. The SpaceX prospectus finally gives the sector a yardstick.

Book at +5.55, 12 of 14 green. IRDM +30 (RKLB acquisition + direct-to-cell narrative + ARK Big Ideas inflows), AVAV +25, ASTS +16, PL +13 leading. LUNR -6 and RDW -9 the only laggards, well off the -16 lows from last week. The primes (LMT +7.7, RTX +7.3, LHX +4.6, NOC +3.8) all bid. Bench still off-universe at 1452. Two weeks ago the pure-plays were in freefall and the framework said hold. Same book, same framework, opposite direction.

Monday: the recovery is on. RDW from -16 to -11, RKLB from -15 to -4, LUNR from -12 to -4, on broader sector buying. Primes (LMT, RTX, LHX) flat doing the ballast job. Five days ago the pure-plays were in freefall and the framework said hold; the framework was right. Bench (BKSY, ASTR, SPIR, MNTS, TSAT) all still off-universe at 1452 symbols. Cash 25k stays as dry powder for the next dislocation, not for averaging in on a green Monday.

Thursday rebalance. The space pure-plays got marked down hard: RDW -16, RKLB -15, LUNR -12, ASTS -8, AVAV -8. No company news triggered it; the entire pre-revenue tier sold off together. Primes (LMT, RTX, LHX) held the ballast as designed. The 12-month catalyst stack has not changed: SpaceX IPO pricing, Neutron flight-readiness, direct-to-cell rollouts. Bench (BKSY, ASTR, SPIR) still off-universe at 1452 symbols. Holding. Cash is dry powder, not for averaging in today.

ASTS +7 leads because it is the only direct-to-cell name with operational satellites in orbit — BlueWalker is running real US field tests. RKLB +3 with Neutron stage testing accelerating, and the medium-lift gap behind Falcon-9-to-Starship is real money on the table. Primes flat is the defense-space budget compounding quietly. The next 12 months in this book: can ASTS hit the launch cadence to fill the constellation before Starlink direct-to-cell scales?

First-week fills: 13 of 14 in, LHX limit still resting at 286.75. ASTS leads at +7 on the direct-to-cell narrative, PL +5, IRDM +4, RKLB +3. Primes (LMT/RTX/NOC) flat, doing the ballast job. Bench (BKSY, ASTR, SPIR, MNTS, TSAT) still not in the tradeable universe of 1452 even after the volume-floor cut, so the basket stays 14 wide. The 12-month catalyst stack is direct-to-cell rollouts, Neutron, and the SpaceX-IPO re-rate question.

Liftoff is live. The bet: the space economy goes public. SpaceX is about to IPO, which re-rates the whole sector; satellite direct-to-cell is rolling out (ASTS just cleared FCC, GSAT powers Apple); defense-space contracts are ramping. You cannot buy SpaceX, so we hold the rest: Rocket Lab nearing profitability, Iridium printing cash, plus imaging, lunar and direct-to-cell, anchored by the primes. Bought the basket on a red sector day. SpaceX made it real, we trade the rest.