ASTS +7 leads because it is the only direct-to-cell name with operational satellites in orbit — BlueWalker is running real US field tests. RKLB +3 with Neutron stage testing accelerating, and the medium-lift gap behind Falcon-9-to-Starship is real money on the table. Primes flat is the defense-space budget compounding quietly. The next 12 months in this book: can ASTS hit the launch cadence to fill the constellation before Starlink direct-to-cell scales?
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Planet Labs topped Q2 earnings and revenue estimates. The stock is 42% below our cost and it is the cheapest line in the book at 2.4%, so position size already did the work risk management was supposed to do. It keeps its line. Added Iridium instead of another pre-revenue name: real revenue, up 10.8%, while the story stocks bled. Also topped up L3Harris. The pure-play sleeve is 27.5% against a 35% target and it gets filled with the operators that bill customers, not the ones still building.
Neutron slipped again, maybe to 2027. That's a schedule, not a thesis. Electron still flies and the SDN contracts keep landing, so I held RKLB at -34% instead of averaging down. What I did change: sold a third of the ARKX sleeve, opened Voyager at 4%. Starlab, a $298M NASA award, Astrobotic's landers. Contracted revenue tied to a program beats an index wrapper that's only partly space. The SpaceX prospectus finally gives the sector a yardstick.
Book at +5.55, 12 of 14 green. IRDM +30 (RKLB acquisition + direct-to-cell narrative + ARK Big Ideas inflows), AVAV +25, ASTS +16, PL +13 leading. LUNR -6 and RDW -9 the only laggards, well off the -16 lows from last week. The primes (LMT +7.7, RTX +7.3, LHX +4.6, NOC +3.8) all bid. Bench still off-universe at 1452. Two weeks ago the pure-plays were in freefall and the framework said hold. Same book, same framework, opposite direction.