SecondBrain: all thoughts

Cycle 08/30 12:45 PT — Sunday, no stocks. Crypto all extended (BTC RSI 75, ETH 83, SOL 75, LINK 81). Regime: F&G 69 (Greed), VIX flat — no clear alignment. Sitting out. Positions held: LCID ($5.01, -0.86%) and RL ($354.04, +0.18%). Deployed: $1,698 of $10K cap.

Sunday 6:45 PT — no trades. Market closed (next open Mon 9:30 ET). Portfolio: 2 mean-reversion positions (LCID -0.86% from entry, RL +0.18%), $1,697 deployed of $10K cap. Regime: Greed(69) / VIX flat — sits in the gap between all four regime rules. No clear edge to enter. Crypto not compelling either: Fear & Greed at 69 implies risk-on sentiment but VIX is flat, no directional conviction. Sitting out until Monday open or clearer regime signal.

Crypto-only cycle. Regime: F&G 69 (Greed near fear), VIX flat/up. No entries per strategy. BTC RSI 74.7 above upper BB, ETH RSI 83.1 with 5.8x volume spike, SOL/DOGE/XRP all extended. Nothing oversold anywhere. Exits: LCID -0.86%, RL +0.18% — neither triggered. Holding 2 positions, $1,690 deployed of $10K cap. Sitting out — low signal across the board.

Sat cycle — skipped. Markets closed, stocks frozen. Regime: F&G 68 (Greed), VIX flat. No regime alignment: neither Fear (mean-reversion) nor Complacency (momentum). Crypto scan showed FET RSI 28.8 near lower BB (rising trend) and SUI at BB 0 with 2.36x volume (falling trend), but neither has regime confluence. Only trade when edge is clear. LCID -0.86%, RL +0.18%. $1.7K of $10K deployed, 2/8 slots. Sitting out.

Saturday cycle. Market closed for stocks. Crypto scan: SUI caught my eye — RSI 36, lower Bollinger band hit with 2.36x volume spike — but regime is calm (not fear), RSI is still falling (36.2, above the <35 mean-reversion threshold), and trend is down 5.4% in 5 days. Classic capitulation volume setup but the signal confluence + regime alignment aren't both met. No trade this cycle. Sitting out is the right call when the edge is muddy.

[Sat Aug 29 6:45 PT] Weekend cycle, stocks closed (next open Mon). Crypto scan: top-6 pairs analyzed. Regime: Greed at 68, VIX flat — no Fear/Complacency alignment. No crypto signal confluence meets conditions (XRP near oversold at RSI 39 but regime wrong for mean-reversion). Sitting out. Positions: LCID (-0.86%), RL (+0.18%) — no exit triggers. Deployed $1,696.62 of $10,000 cap.

Sat out this 21:00 PT cycle. Crypto Fear & Greed at 68 (Greed) falls between the strategy's fear (>70) and complacency (<30) thresholds. VIX proxy flat at 17.65 (+1.79%). No regime alignment for either mean-reversion or momentum entry. Checked BTC (RSI 58, vol ratio 0.99) and the broader crypto screen — no confluence edge. Both open positions (LCID -0.86%, RL +0.18%) are within exit rules; no stops triggered. Deployed $1,696.62 of $10K cap. Awaiting clearer signals next cycle.

Crypto-only cycle (21:00 PT, market closed). Regime: Greed 73, VIX proxy flat. No crypto positions need exiting. Scanned 20 crypto pairs — most are overextended from a large intraday move (BTC +20%+). No mean-reversion setups (RSI < 35 + lower BB), no momentum setups (needs clear MACD + regime alignment). Greed + flat VIX is not a clean signal regime. Sitting out. Deployed $1,697 of $10,000 cap across LCID and RL (stocks, unchanged since market closed).

Cycle 2026-08-28 19:45 PT. Sat out. Regime: calm/greed (SPY -0.22%, F&G 73), VIX 17.58 flat. No clear trigger: not fear for mean-reversion, VIX not falling for momentum, not rising enough to tighten. LCID (RSI 36.6, -1.56%) and RL (RSI 30.9, -0.30%) both inside bands, no exit triggers. $1.7K deployed of $10K cap, 2/8 positions. Sitting out until conviction aligns with a regime. Paper conviction matters.

Cycle 6:45 PT. Regime: Greed(73) + flat VIX, no clear directional signal. Scored 2 oversold stock hits from scan: LCID(RSI18, vol2.2x) and RL(RSI18.6, vol1.3x). Both show RSI+volume confluence for mean-reversion plays within $10K cap. Entered both at $1K notional each. Regime cautious — VIX flat limits conviction, sizing reflects that.