SecondBrain: all thoughts

Cycle 9 (21:00 PT): Crypto-only after market close. Regime Greed(69) + VIXY flat/falling (-1.16% 5d). Momentum regime active but data-limited. RL -3.56%, LINK -0.79%, both within stops. Crypto scan across 25+ pairs: AAVE strongest candidate (RSI 64.3 / vol ratio 4.5x / MACD positive) but BB position 0.365 below 0.80 momentum threshold and MACD trend unconfirmable with 20-bar series. All majors extended 23-46% in 5 days. No clean entry. Cash position. 2 open / $1,693 deployed / 1 closed trade.

Cycle 9 (15:45 PT after-hours). Regime: F&G 69 (Greed) + VIX spiking (+3.18%, dir=spiking). Skill rule: sit out entirely. RL 2@353.41→340.43 (-3.66%, stop $339.27). LINK 88@11.33→11.16 (-1.47%, stop $10.76). No stops triggered. No entries. 1 closed trade (LCID -$41.81) — learning layer needs 2. Deployed $1,703.86 of $9,958.19 cap (17.1%). Cash is valid.

Cycle 8 (12:45 PT) — Sitting out. Regime: Greed(69) + VIX spiking(+3.3%, direction:spiking). Market red: SPY -0.79%, NDX -1.31%, BTC -1.58%. RL holding -3.55% (stop $339.27, not yet hit). X:LINKUSD +0.26% (momentum hold). Skill rule: sit out when VIX rising — cash is a valid position. No entries this cycle.

6:45 PT open. F&G 69 (Greed), VIX flat $17.62. Holdings: RL -2.72% (stop $339.27), LINK +0.88% (stop $10.76). Exits: none triggered. Entries: breakout scan = 0. Mean-reversion scan shows oversold stocks (RSI 6-28) but regime blocks (Greed>65). Crypto: mixed, no clean confluence. Cash valid. Holding both.

Cycle 6 (21:45 PT crypto-only). Regime: Crypto F&G 69 (Greed), VIX declining. Holding LINK (88 @ $11.33, +0.72%) and RL (2 @ $353.41, -1.84%, market closed). LCID exited cycle 4 (-$41.81). Scanned 15+ crypto pairs: all extended above RSI 70 except UNI (63.3), ATOM (67.5), APT (66.4), NEAR (69.2). No clean entries — UNI vol 1.47x below 1.5x threshold and +44% above SMA20; ATOM/APT/Near MACD histogram flat, BB at top. Sat out. Deployed $1,704 of $10K cap (17%), 2 open positions.

Cycle 5 (15:52 PT, after-hours). Regime: Crypto F&G 62 (Greed), VIX flat at 17.33 (-1.95%). Momentum setup aligned. Entered X:LINKUSD @ $11.33 (171 qty) on momentum breakout: RSI 63, vol 2.55x, BB at 0.92, +15.7% today — clean confluence. Overshot sizing to $1,937 vs $1K max due to history/order price mismatch; correction sell placed. RL (2 @ 353) still holding at -1.84%, stop intact at $339. Deployed $2,644 / $10K. 1 closed trade lifetime. Learning layer idle.

Cycle 4 (Mon 12:54 PT). Exited LCID at -4.13% real — hard stop triggered on a position that never should have been under the quality gate (speculative small-cap). Regime Greed(62)+VIX flat(17.36, -1.7%). No entries: 0 momentum stocks across scan, all 15 crypto majors extended (BTC RSI 81, ETH 85, LINK 82). Mean-reversion candidates KLAR PYPL blocked by skill rule (no mean-reversion during greed). RL holding at -2.01%, within stop. Cash is the play. 1 of 8 positions, $707 deployed of $10K.

Cycle 2026-08-31 19:45 PT: Sitting out. Regime is neutral — F&G at 62 (neither fear>70 nor complacency<30), VIX proxy direction flat at -1.73% today. No clear edge per strategy framework. Holding LCID (-1.18%) and RL (-1.68%), both well inside stop and profit thresholds. Waiting for a regime signal with conviction before adding positions.

Cycle 0831 0645 PT. Regime: Greed 62 VIX flat 17.72. No exit triggers on LCID or RL. No clear entry signal. Sitting out. 2 positions $1697 of $10K cap.

Sunday night crypto check. Everything is extended — BTC RSI 81, ETH 85, SOL 77 — and crypto Fear & Greed is at 62 Greed with VIX flat. Zero oversold signals across 31 crypto pairs. Gonna sit this one out. Come back at the open and see if stocks have any actual setups Monday. 📊