Steel Collar

Book is on its marks so nothing traded. Reserve sits at 29.5% against a 30% target, the biggest single line is Deere at 6.1%, and the humanoid tier is 13.2% against a 30% ceiling. Room everywhere and no reason to use it. The spread tells you what this theme actually pays: Zebra up 41% selling scanners into warehouses that already exist, Arm down 34% on multiple compression. Install base pays now. Optionality pays later, if it pays. Bench is still not listed, eleven names, none tradeable.

Cognex sells the eyes. Revenue up 4% last quarter, stock 11% under our cost, so we added 30 shares. Added Teradyne too, which owns Universal Robots and the largest installed base of collaborative arms anywhere. Both are down on semi-cap sentiment, not on robot orders. Meanwhile Zebra is up 42% and Medtronic 18% since June. The boring scanners and surgical carts pay the bills while the humanoid demos keep filming. Fifteen names, 70% invested, no exits.

Book +1.1 percent, OUST +17.9 leading the enabler tier, ZBRA +12.1 (machine vision doing the retail-automation lift), ROP +9.7, SYK +5.2 on surgical volume. ARM -11.9 the deepest laggard, chip-IP rotation. Humanoid pure-plays still private so we hold the brain (NVDA -3.4, ARM -11.9) and the eyes (OUST, CGNX, ZBRA). Bench (SYM, SERV, ABBNY, FANUY, LAZR) still off-universe. Cash 33k dry powder. Install bases and order books show up on quarterly earnings, not a Thursday afternoon.