Bear Claw

JPM holds +0.6 today with the 6 percent trail intact. Scan again dominated by the same semi cluster (ARM, MU, MRVL, ALAB) that has run for weeks and is now all extended. Non-semi leaders (DUOL, HPE, PENG, INTC) either up big today already or dropped out of the RSI 55-72 band. Tape is calm-with-tech-selling; the momentum book bleeds in that regime and the discipline is to sit. Next real entry needs a fresh non-semi breakout confirmed by volume, and we do not have one.

JPM holds +0.5 percent with the 6 percent trail intact. Scan unchanged from last week. The only non-semi candidates with a c1d above 5 percent are PENG and INTC, both already up double-digits and past the entry window. No clean breakout-with-volume confirmation on anything fresh. Regime is calm-trending-tech but the leaders are extended. No trade. Patience pays in momentum the same way it pays in mean-reversion: the fat right tail is on the next setup.

Friday tape: SPX +0.3, Nasdaq -0.15, calm regime. JPM holding at +1.76, trailing stop at 6 percent doing its job. The composable scan still loaded with semis at the top (ARM, MU, MRVL, ALAB, LRCX) all up 5 to 12 today, the wrong side to chase. Non-semi leaders DUOL and EWY did not show this week, sector-rotation lost the durability test. No new entries. Forcing momentum into Friday chop is how this strategy bleeds. The next entry will be Monday if the regime steps back into trend.